The proclamation of Evo Morales as a presidential candidate for the August 17, 2025 elections, held on April 19 in Bulo Bulo, marks the beginning of a deeply polarized electoral race. Although Morales faces a constitutional ruling that could disqualify him and a pending arrest warrant, his proclamation mobilized thousands of supporters. The lack of a clear response from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) and the Plurinational Constitutional Court (TCP) opens a scenario in which the right, fragmented and lacking unified leadership, could be at a disadvantage against a divided MAS that still retains mobilization capacity.
The event in Bulo Bulo, a coca-grower stronghold and symbolic territory of the former president, demonstrated the continued relevance of «Evismo» as a social force. Morales appealed to his traditional discourse defending the “process of change” and denounced a conspiracy to prevent his return. However, the absence of Senator Andrónico Rodríguez, leader of the very federation that organized the rally, revealed an internal fracture within MAS that could directly affect the electoral performance of the «Evista» candidacy.
Rodríguez, backed by figures such as Eva Copa and David Choquehuanca, represents a current seeking to distance itself from both President Luis Arce and Morales, proposing a third way within the ruling party. The presence of banners proclaiming him as a presidential candidate confirms his political aspirations and his influence in the Tropics—a region that for decades was Morales’ exclusive stronghold.
Despite his proclamation, Morales’ candidacy faces significant legal obstacles. Constitutional Ruling 1010/2023, which prohibits those who have already served two presidential terms from running again, puts his eligibility in question. Although the ruling does not mention him explicitly, its application would fall under the TSE’s authority. Additionally, Morales still has an active arrest warrant in a case of aggravated human trafficking. While this does not legally disqualify his candidacy, it limits his ability to campaign and reinforces his narrative of political persecution.
Meanwhile, the opposition remains fragmented. Traditional figures like Manfred Reyes, Jorge Quiroga, and Samuel Doria Medina have failed to articulate a unified proposal or establish a consensual leadership. The absence of a cohesive opposition front, with a renewed message that connects with citizens, weakens its chances against a MAS that, even while divided, maintains territorial structures and a mobilized base.
If the TSE does not rule in time and Morales manages to formally register as a candidate, the right will face a complicated scenario: it will have to compete against at least three factions within the ruling party (Evistas, Arcistas, and a potential third way represented by Rodríguez), and without its own unity, its vote risks being diluted. In that context, Morales could not only make it to a second round but potentially win in the first.
Institutional ambiguity, coupled with political polarization and economic crisis, creates fertile ground for an unpredictable election. The response of the TSE and TCP will be crucial not only for Morales’ political future but for the democratic balance of the country. What is at stake is not just the candidacy of a former president, but Bolivia’s institutional stability, in a regional context where strong leaderships are resurging and democracies face growing tensions.
Lee esta nota en español: https://acortar.link/nCvJsJ
About Author
